CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-01-08T05:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-01-08T05:53ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43816/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This event is more narrow as observed by STEREO A COR2 imagery, while a wider feature is observed in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. The source is an eruption and C4.4 flare from Active Region 14334 (S18E05) starting around 2026-01-08T05:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. Ejecta can be observed deflecting southeast of the eruption site, possibly due to a nearby coronal hole west of AR 14334. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): this CME was likely swept by the front of the later, more prominent, CME: CME: 2026-01-08T17:00Z, which arrived on 2026-01-10T19:36Z, with a significant shock characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT, accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s, a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. It is possible that this shock signature incorporates a glancing blow from CME: 2026-01-08T05:53Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T19:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T10:47Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 61.5%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.66667 - 6.66667
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 30.45 hour(s)
Difference: 8.82 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-01-09T13:09Z
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